Aaron dinkin dissertation
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About the chemistry life essay Online Business Planning Course instructor : Carol Parenzan Smalley is an entrepreneur and dissertation, educator with a degree in engineering and over song flight essay, 20 years of business experience. She acts as a consultant to both small businesses and to dinkin dissertation business writers, has more then thirteen years of experience teaching college-level entrepreneurial courses, and is the former editor of the theology dissertation world's largest customer relationship management online community. Online Business Planning Course requirements: For taking this instructor led Online Business Planning Course you need Microsoft Word or other word processing program, Internet access, e-mail, and the Microsoft Internet Explorer or Mozilla Firefox Web browser. Testimonials: The Online Business Planning Course has received overwhelming positive feedback and reviews from aaron dinkin dissertation, students around the world. Here are a few: An excellent source of information for writing dissertation anyone interested in business.
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Carol, I just want to aaron dinkin tell you how much I appreciate you teaching this course. To Kill A Mockingbird Part? It would have taken me years, YEARS! to compile this information and I would never have had the benefit of your experience or the invaluable lessons I learned as I listened in on the feedback given to aaron dinkin dissertation my classmates. Carol is an writing dissertation amazing instructor. Her wealth of knowledge and ability to communicate clearly far surpassed my expectations. I never ever expected to feel so comfortable interacting with someone online in a classroom setting - consequently, I did not hesitate to share any and all concerns and ideas. Carol was so very encouraging throughout, a real blessing to students, and a definite asset to the institution! I'm most appreciative of all her efforts, and dissertation, hope to interact with her again one day!
Carol is an to kill part energetic and aaron dinkin, inspiring instructor. Her course has propelled me greatly along--not only in regards to writing a business plan, but also in regards to thinking like an entrepreneur and understanding business. I feel that my horizons are broadened thanks to this course. Chemistry In Our Life? Carol is an excellent instructor and has excellent knowledge base. She responded very quickly to the discussion area and to my satisfaction. I would recommend this course and aaron dinkin dissertation, her as an cornell admission question instructor without any reservation. As a matter of fact we would like her to be on our Board of Experts. Carol is awesome! I'm ready to take on the small business world. This course is aaron dissertation, great!
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Go through the Online Business Planning Course courseware (which would take you 6 weeks) and complete the final Business Planning Certification exam at your convenience. You can complete the exam within 2 months of buying the Business Planning Certification. The result of the exam appears as soon as it is completed, and your Business Planning Certificate is mailed immediately. What learning aids will I get? The Online Business Planning Course includes the following learning aids: A friendly instructor to dinkin dissertation answer your questions online. Writing Theology? A discussion area to dinkin dissertation have your questions answered. Chapter end quizzes to ensure that you are learning important aspects of every chapter. Chapter assignments to to kill a mockingbird part question help you practically use the Business Planning that you will learn during the Business Planning Course. What is the final exam like?
The final exam is fully based upon the Online Business Planning Course courseware that is provided along with the Business Planning Certification. If you have gone through the courseware properly you should not have a problem clearing the exam. The exam consists of multiple choice questions from all chapters of the Online Business Planning Courseware. What are the dinkin course start dates? ExpertRating instructor led courses commence every month, you can always choose a suitable date for your course commencement in any month. To see available course start dates, please click on the Enroll now button. All courses run for song essay six weeks, with a two-week grace period at the end.
Two lessons are released each week for the six-week duration of the course. You do not have to be present when the aaron lesson is PESTIS GOVERNMENT REPORT, released, but you must complete each lesson within two weeks of dinkin, its release. A business plan acts as a tool, which enables the business owner to flight streamline the various processes involved in the process (from manufacturing to marketing). A business plan spells out the techniques required to take the business towards making sales and aaron, profits and achieving the desired goal/s of the business in the prescribed time limit and approved budget. To Kill A Mockingbird Part 1 Essay Question? The business plan shows the ‘whys’ and ‘hows’ of a project. A business plan is aaron dinkin, a model for potential goals to be accomplished and it allows potential flaws to be identified so that they can be rectified in question time.
The plan demarcates every employee’s role. Online Business Planning Course Coverage (6 weeks program) This lesson will focus on the customer. Nowadays successful companies focus not on the products and services that they offer, but on the customers that they serve—on many levels. Dinkin? Together, you'll learn how to position your company to be customer-centric. And, you'll learn how to move that customer from satisfied to loyal (and perhaps even an advocate for in our everyday life your business). In this lesson, you'll structure your organization so it's in the best position to provide your product or service to your targeted customers. Dinkin Dissertation? This lesson will help you create a board of life essay, experts to guide you along your journey. You'll discover the role that change plays in your entrepreneurial evolution. Change is good—it shows that you're thinking! In this lesson you’ll explore the plan within the plan—the marketing section of your business plan.
You'll lay the foundation for your marketing efforts and dinkin dissertation, will define sales and marketing (there is a difference!). Everyday Essay? You'll also explore the features and benefits of your product or service, and dissertation, will begin the ongoing task of market research. Song Of Solomon? This is where you can differentiate your product or service from that of your competition. This lesson will explore three separate areas of marketing. First, you'll learn about your competitors so that you can better position yourself and discover just how solid your business ideas are. This lesson will discuss one of the most difficult issues of new business—pricing. Aaron Dinkin Dissertation? Finally, you become the SWOT team—analyzing strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats.
In this lesson, you'll join a panel of song of solomon flight essay, outstanding marketing, public relations, and graphics experts who are also entrepreneurs and believe in the power of networking. This lesson will explore graphic design, logos, image, public relations, and aaron dinkin, guerrilla marketing. And you'll also discover marketing in a mockingbird part action in this lesson. This lesson will start by hearing Alice in Wonderland explain to the Mad Hatter that, in a topsy-turvy world, it seems like (you) have to do something wrong first, in order to learn from what not to do. And then, by not doing what (you're) not supposed to do, perhaps (you'll) be right.
But (you'd) rather be right the first time, wouldn't you? Confused? You'll tackle manufacturing and operations concerns in this not-so-topsy-turvy lesson. In this lesson, you'll learn that both successes and failures can be tremendous teachers—but you'll have to apply those lessons learned to other life or business ventures. For this lesson, it'll take a bird's eye view of the dinkin financial section of to kill 1 essay question, a business plan. This lesson will also briefly explore the aaron dissertation capital equipment list, the balance sheet, and break-even analysis. This lesson will discuss three additional financial components of the plan. It'll explore the projected income statement (always a fun area!), cash flow, and historical financial records. Be sure to take some time to explore the Supplemental Links area (in this lesson and in cornell admission question all the others) for outstanding online resources. This lesson will continue its focus on money, but from a different perspective than in the previous two lessons.
It'll focus on funding and financing opportunities, and by the end of this lesson, you should have a better understanding of financing. You'll also find out where to locate traditional (and not so traditional) sources of funding.
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Fallibility, Reflexivity, and the Human Uncertainty Principle. I am honored that the editors of the Journal of dinkin, Economic Methodology have created this special issue on song of solomon flight essay the subject of reflexivity and have invited me, as well as a distinguished group of dissertation, scholars, to to kill a mockingbird, contribute. Of course I did not discover reflexivity. Earlier observers recognized it, or at aaron dinkin, least aspects of it, often under a different name. To Kill A Mockingbird Part 1 Essay! Knight (1921) explored the difference between risk and uncertainty. Keynes (1936, Chapter 12) compared financial markets to a beauty contest where the participants had to guess who would be the most popular choice. Aaron Dinkin Dissertation! The sociologist Merton (1949) wrote about self-fulfilling prophecies, unintended consequences, and the bandwagon effect. Popper spoke of the ‘Oedipus effect’ in the Poverty of Historicism (1957, Chapter 5). My own conceptual framework has its origins in my time as a student at the London School of Economics in the late 1950s. I took my final exams one year early, so I had a year to dissertation, fill before I was qualified to aaron dinkin dissertation, receive my degree.
I could choose my tutor, and I chose Popper whose book TheOpen Society and Its Enemies (1945) had made a profound impression on me. In Popper’s other great work Logik der Forschung (1935), which was published in English as The Logic of Scientific Discovery (1959), he argued that the empirical truth cannot be known with absolute certainty. High School! Even scientific laws cannot be verified beyond a shadow of a doubt: they can only be falsified by testing. One failed test is aaron dinkin, enough to falsify, but no amount of conforming instances is writing, sufficient to verify. Scientific laws are always hypothetical in aaron dissertation, character, and their validity remains open to paper rubric high school, falsification. While I was reading Popper I was also studying economic theory, and I was struck by the contradiction between Popper’s emphasis on imperfect understanding and the theory of perfect competition in economics, which postulated perfect knowledge.
This led me to start questioning the assumptions of economic theory. I replaced the postulates of rational expectations and efficient markets with my own principles of fallibility and reflexivity. After college, I started working in the financial markets where I had not much use for the economic theories I had studied in college. Strangely enough, the dissertation conceptual framework I had developed under Popper’s influence provided me with much more valuable insights. And while I was engaged in making money I did not lose my interest in philosophy. I published my first book, The Alchemy of Finance, in 1987. YERSINIA PESTIS! In that book, I tried to explain the philosophical underpinnings of my approach to financial markets. The book attracted a certain amount of attention. It has been read by many people in the hedge fund industry, and it is taught in dinkin dissertation, business schools. But the philosophical arguments in that book and subsequent books (Soros, 1998, 2000) did not make much of an impression on part 1 essay question the economics departments of aaron dinkin dissertation, universities. My framework was largely dismissed as the conceit of song essay, a man who has been successful in business and therefore fancies himself as a philosopher.
With my theories largely ignored by academia, I began to regard myself as a failed philosopher – I even gave a lecture entitled ‘A Failed Philosopher Tries Again.’ All that changed as a result of the financial crisis of 2008. My understanding of reflexivity enabled me both to anticipate the crisis and to deal with it when it finally struck (Soros, 2008, 2009). When the aaron dinkin fallout of the rubric school crisis spread from the USA to dinkin, Europe and around the world it enabled me to explain and predict events better than most others (Soros, 2012). The crisis put in stark relief the failings of orthodox economic theory (Soros, 2010). As people have realized how badly traditional economics has failed, interest in reflexivity has grown.
Thus, this issue of the Journal of Economic Methodology is timely. Economics is in a period of intellectual flux and while some economists will cling to ideas of market efficiency and rationality to to kill a mockingbird part question, their final days, many others are eager to dinkin, pursue alternative approaches. In this essay, I will articulate my current thinking. In Section 2, I shall explain the concepts of fallibility and research paper reflexivity in general terms. In Section 3, I will discuss the implications of my conceptual framework for the social sciences in general and for dinkin, economics in particular. In Section 4, I will describe how my conceptual framework applies to the financial markets with special mention of financial bubbles and the ongoing euro crisis. I will then conclude with some thoughts on the need for a new paradigm in chemistry everyday life essay, social science. Fallibility and reflexivity.
I have a peculiar problem in explicating my conceptual framework. The framework deals with the relationship between thinking and reality, but the aaron dinkin participants’ thinking is part of the reality that they have to think about, which makes the relationship circular. Circles have no beginning or end, so I have to plunge in at an arbitrary point. That makes my ideas less clear when I put them into YERSINIA PESTIS GOVERNMENT REPORT, words than they are in my own mind. I am not the only one affected by this difficulty but I feel obliged to warn the reader that this section will be more convoluted and less elegant than it ought to be; the rest of the paper is not affected. My conceptual framework is built on two relatively simple propositions. Aaron Dinkin! The first is that in situations that have thinking participants, the participants’ views of the world never perfectly correspond to the actual state of paper grading rubric school, affairs. People can gain knowledge of individual facts, but when it comes to formulating theories or forming an overall view, their perspective is bound to aaron dinkin dissertation, be either biased or inconsistent or both.
That is the principle of fallibility. The second proposition is that these imperfect views can influence the writing dissertation situation to which they relate through the actions of the participants. Dinkin Dissertation! For example, if investors believe that markets are efficient then that belief will change the way they invest, which in turn will change the research grading rubric high nature of the markets in which they are participating (though not necessarily making them more efficient). Aaron! That is the principle of reflexivity. The two principles are tied together like Siamese twins, but fallibility is the dissertation firstborn: without fallibility there would be no reflexivity. Aaron! Both principles can be observed operating in the real world. So when my critics say that I am merely stating the obvious, they are right – but only up to a point. What makes my propositions interesting is that they contradict some of the basic tenets of economic theory. Song Of Solomon Essay! My conceptual framework deserves attention not because it constitutes a new discovery, but because something as commonsensical as reflexivity has been so studiously ignored by economists. Dinkin Dissertation! The field of economics has gone to great lengths to eliminate the song of solomon essay uncertainty associated with reflexivity in order to formulate universally valid laws similar to Newtonian physics. In doing so, economists set themselves an impossible task.
The uncertainty associated with fallibility and reflexivity is inherent in the human condition. To make this point, I lump together the aaron dinkin dissertation two concepts as the human uncertainty principle. The complexity of the world in which we live exceeds our capacity to comprehend it. Confronted by a reality of extreme complexity, we are obliged to resort to cornell admission question, various methods of simplification: generalizations, dichotomies, metaphors, decision rules, and aaron dinkin moral precepts, just to mention a few. These mental constructs take on to kill question a (subjective) existence of their own, further complicating the situation. The structure of the brain is another source of dissertation, fallibility. Recent advances in essay question, brain science have begun to provide some insight into how the brain functions, and they have substantiated David Hume’s insight that reason is the slave of passion. The idea of a disembodied intellect or reason is a figment of our imagination.
The brain is aaron, bombarded by millions of sensory impulses, but consciousness can process only seven or eight subjects concurrently. The impulses need to writing, be condensed, ordered, and interpreted under immense time pressure; mistakes and distortions cannot be avoided. Brain science adds many new insights to my contention that our understanding of the world in aaron, which we live is inherently imperfect. Fallibility pervades our attempts to understand both natural and social phenomena, but it is not fallibility that distinguishes the social from the physical sciences. Rather, as will be discussed further in Section 3, the distinction comes from the fact that in social systems fallible human beings are not merely scientific observers but also active participants in the system themselves. Chemistry In Our Everyday Life! That is what makes social systems reflexive. The concept of reflexivity needs some further explication. It applies exclusively to situations that have thinking participants. Aaron Dissertation! The participants’ thinking serves two functions. One is to understand the world in research grading rubric school, which we live; I call this the cognitive function.
The other is to make an impact on dinkin the world and to theology dissertation, advance the participants’ interests; I call this the manipulative function. I use the term ‘manipulative’ to emphasize intentionality. The two functions connect the participants’ thinking (subjective reality) and the actual state of affairs (objective reality) in opposite directions. In the cognitive function, the participant is cast in the role of a passive observer: the direction of causation is aaron dinkin dissertation, from the world to the mind. In the manipulative function, the participants play an active role: the direction of causation is from the mind to the world. Both functions are subject to fallibility. When both the cognitive and manipulative functions operate at the same time they may interfere with each other.
How? By depriving each function of the independent variable that would be needed to determine the value of the dependent variable. The independent variable of cornell question, one function is the dependent variable of the other, thus neither function has a genuinely independent variable – the relationship is circular or recursive. Dinkin! It is like a partnership where each partner’s view of the theology dissertation other influences their behavior and vice-versa. Lack of an dinkin independent criterion of truth. If the cognitive function operated in isolation, without any interference from the research manipulative function, it could produce knowledge.
Knowledge is represented by true statements. A statement is true if it corresponds to dinkin dissertation, the facts – that is GOVERNMENT REPORT, what the correspondence theory of truth tells us. But if there is dissertation, interference from the manipulative function, the facts no longer serve as an independent criterion because the statement may be the to kill a mockingbird question product of the dinkin dissertation manipulative function. Consider the statement ‘It is raining.’ That statement is true or false depending on whether it is, in fact, raining. And whether people believe it is raining or not cannot change the facts. Song Flight! The agent can assess the statement without any interference from the manipulative function and thus gain knowledge. Now consider the dinkin statement ‘I love you.’ The statement is paper high, reflexive.
It will have an effect on the object of the affections of the person making the statement and the recipient’s response may then affect the aaron dissertation feelings of the theology dissertation person making the statement, changing the dissertation truth value of his or her original statement. Reflexivity has some affinity with the Liar’s Paradox, which is a self-referential statement. Research Paper Rubric High! ‘This sentence is false’ is dinkin, paradoxical. If the sentence is true, it means it is false, but if it is to kill 1 essay question, false, it means it is true. Bertrand Russell resolved the paradox by putting self-referential statements into a separate category and aaron dinkin declaring them to be meaningless. Following Russell, an important school of philosophy, logical positivism, banned self-referential statements. Ludwig Wittgenstein carried this program to its logical conclusion in his Tractatus Logico-Philosophicus and in the end he concluded that he had embarked on an impossible task. In practice, it is impossible to avoid either self-referential or reflexive statements. Consequently, the cognitive function cannot produce all the knowledge agents need to make decisions; they have to act on the basis of imperfect understanding. Writing Theology Dissertation! While the manipulative function can make an impact on the world, outcomes are unlikely to correspond to expectations. There is bound to be some slippage between intentions and actions, and further slippage between actions and outcomes. Aaron Dissertation! Since agents base their decisions on inadequate knowledge, their actions are liable to have unintended consequences.
This means that reflexivity introduces an element of uncertainty both into song of solomon flight, the agents’ view of the world and into the world in which they participate. While self-reference has been extensively analyzed by the Vienna school with which Popper was associated, reflexivity has received much less attention. Aaron! This is admission, strange because reflexivity has an impact on the real world, while self-reference is confined to the universe of statements. Aaron Dinkin Dissertation! In the real world, the participants’ thinking finds expression not only in statements but also, of course, in various forms of action and behavior. That makes reflexivity a much broader phenomenon than self-reference: it connects the universe of thoughts with the universe of events. Bertrand Russell analyzed the Liar’s Paradox in in our everyday life essay, a timeless fashion. But reflexive systems are dynamic and unfold over time as the cognitive and dinkin dissertation manipulative functions perpetually chase each other. Once time is introduced, reflexivity creates indeterminacy and uncertainty rather than paradox. Reflexive feedback loops between the cognitive and manipulative functions connect the realms of beliefs and events. The participants’ views influence but do not determine the course of events, and the course of events influences but does not determine the participants’ views. The influence is continuous and circular; that is what turns it into a feedback loop.
As both the cognitive and manipulative functions are subject to fallibility, uncertainty is introduced into both the realms of beliefs and events. The process may be initiated from either direction, from a change in views, or from a change in circumstances. Objective and subjective aspects of reality. Reflexive feedback loops have not been rigorously analyzed and when I originally encountered them and tried to study them, I ran into various difficulties. The main source of the trouble was that thinking is part of reality and the relationship of a part to the whole is very difficult to describe. The fact that thinking is not directly observable adds further complications; consequently, the definition of reflexivity will be much more complicated than the concept itself. The idea is that there is a two-way feedback loop connecting thinking and reality. The main feedback is song, between the participants’ views and the actual course of events. But what about aaron dissertation a direct two-way interaction between the various participants’ views? And what about a solitary individual asking herself who she is and writing what she stands for and changing her behavior as a result of her own internal reflections?
To resolve these difficulties, I propose distinguishing between the objective and subjective aspects of reality. Thinking constitutes the subjective aspect. Aaron! It takes place in the privacy of the dissertation participants’ minds and is not directly observable; only its material manifestations are. The objective aspect consists of observable events. In other words, the dissertation subjective aspect covers the participants’ thinking and the objective aspect denotes all observable facts, whether in the outside world or inside the brain. Free will versus determinism. There is only one objective reality, but there are as many different subjective views as there are thinking participants. The views can be divided into different groups such as doubters and believers, trend followers and contrarians, Cartesians and empiricists – but these are simplifications and the categories are not fixed. Agents may hold views that are not easily categorized; moreover, they are free to choose between categories and research paper high they are free to switch.
This is what is usually meant by free will but I consider free will a misnomer. Dinkin! People’s views are greatly influenced but not determined by external factors such as the views of others, heredity, upbringing, and prior experiences. So, reality is halfway between free will and determinism. Reflexivity can connect any two or more aspects of reality, setting up two-way feedback loops between them. Theology! We may then distinguish between two kinds of aaron, reflexivity: reflexive relations, like marriage or politics, which connect the subjective aspects of reality, and reflexive events, like the fiscal cliff or the euro crisis, which connect the subjective and objective aspects. A Mockingbird 1 Essay Question! In exceptional cases, reflexivity may even occur within a single subjective aspect of dissertation, reality, as in the case of a solitary individual reflecting on his own identity. Essay Question! This may be described as self-reflexivity. When reality has no subjective aspect, there can be no reflexivity. In other words, the aaron presence or absence of reflexivity serves as a criterion of demarcation between social and natural phenomena – a point I will discuss in detail in dissertation, the next section. Let me illustrate the difficulties in analyzing the relationship between thinking and reality with the help of a diagram.
Figure 1 describes the roles of the cognitive and manipulative functions, fallibility, and aaron dissertation intentionality. Together this might be thought of as a reflexive system. Figure 1 A reflexive system. I have indicated the presence of multiple participants, and therefore multiple subjective realities. Nevertheless, the diagram is inadequate because it would require three dimensions to show the multiple participants interacting with each other as well as with the objective aspect of question, reality. The human uncertainty principle.
Knight (1921) introduced an important distinction between risk and uncertainty. Risk is when there are multiple possible future states and the probabilities of those different future states occurring are known. Risk is well described by the laws of probability and statistics. Knightian uncertainty occurs when the probabilities of future states, or even the nature of aaron dinkin dissertation, possible future states is not known. At this point, we need to recognize that it is fallibility that is the key source of Knightian uncertainty in human affairs.
Yes, reflexivity does introduce an element of uncertainty into GOVERNMENT REPORT, both the participants’ views and the actual course of events, and there are also other forms of fallibility that have the same effect. For instance, different participants have different goals, some of which may be in conflict with each other. Moreover, as Isaiah Berlin pointed out, each participant may be guided by a multiplicity of values that may not be self-consistent. The uncertainties created by these factors are more extensive than those specifically associated with reflexivity. We must also remember that not all forms of aaron dissertation, fallibility create Knightian uncertainty. Some forms are subject to statistical analysis – human errors leading to road accidents for song of solomon, example, or the dinkin dissertation many biases and errors discovered by behavioral economists. Other aspects of fallibility qualify as Knightian uncertainty – for example, probability analysis is not much help in understanding the misconceptions at the heart of the euro crisis. Humans face quantifiable risks as well as Knightian uncertainty.
There are many activities that are predictable or at least their probabilities can be calculated. Psychologists and behavioral economists have catalogued many regularities in human behavior. But with few exceptions, these experiments do not deal with reflexivity. Song Essay! Most behavioral experiments assess people’s perception of objective reality (e.g. trying to remember numbers, guess probabilities of different events, and so on) and thus are really measures of the fallibility of the cognitive function. Dinkin Dissertation! The manipulative function is rarely studied. Song Of Solomon! Thus, there is both uncertainty and regularity in human affairs. Reflexivity is only one source of uncertainty, albeit a powerful one. Earlier, I referred to the combination of reflexivity and fallibility as the human uncertainty principle. Dinkin! That makes it a broader concept than reflexivity. The human uncertainty principle is much more specific and stringent than the subjective skepticism that pervades Cartesian philosophy. It gives us objective reasons to believe that the theories held by essay question, the participants, as distinct from aaron, statements of specific facts, are liable to be biased, incomplete, or both.
Philosophy of social science. The idea that the sciences should be unified goes back to the pre-Socratic Greeks and has been a subject of debate in philosophy ever since. Popper (1935/1959, 1957) argued that science could be demarcated from metaphysics by his notion of falsifiable hypotheses; moreover, that falsifiable hypotheses could also provide methodological unity to the sciences. While I have drawn much inspiration from Popper, this is an important point where I differ from paper grading rubric high school, my mentor. I believe that reflexivity provides a strong challenge to the idea that natural and social science can be unified. I believe that social science can still be a valuable human endeavor, but in order for it to aaron, be so, we must recognize its fundamental differences from natural science.
Popper’s theory of scientific method. I base my argument on Popper’s (1935/1959) theory of scientific method. Let me start by summarizing his beautifully simple and elegant scheme. It consists of writing theology, three elements and three operations. The three elements are scientific laws of universal and timeless validity and two sets of singular conditions that Popper calls the cause and the effect. The three operations are prediction, explanation, and testing. When a scientific law is combined with the cause it provides predictions. When a scientific law is combined with the effect it provides explanations. In this sense, predictions and explanations are symmetrical and aaron dinkin dissertation reversible through the logic of admission, deduction.
That leaves testing. On this last point Popper had a key insight. According to Popper, scientific laws are hypothetical in character; they cannot be verified, but they can be falsified by empirical testing. The key to the success of scientific method is that it can test generalizations of universal validity with the help of singular observations. One failed test is dinkin, sufficient to falsify a theory, but no amount of confirming instances is YERSINIA GOVERNMENT REPORT, sufficient to verify it. Generalizations that cannot be tested do not qualify as scientific. This is dinkin, a brilliant construct that makes science both empirical and paper school rational. According to Popper, it is empirical because we test our theories by observing whether the predictions we derive from them are true, and it is rational because we use deductive logic in aaron, doing so. Popper dispenses with inductive logic, which he considers invalid and rubric high gives testing a central role instead. He also makes a strong case for critical thinking by asserting that scientific laws are only provisionally valid and remain open to re-examination.
The three salient features of Popper’s scheme are the symmetry between prediction and explanation, the aaron dissertation asymmetry between verification and falsification, and the central role of testing. These three features allow science to to kill a mockingbird question, grow, improve, and innovate. Problems of social science. Popper’s scheme has worked extraordinarily well for the study of natural phenomena, but the human uncertainty principle throws a monkey wrench into the supreme simplicity and elegance of Popper’s scheme. The symmetry between prediction and explanation is destroyed because the future is genuinely uncertain, and therefore cannot be predicted with the same degree of aaron dissertation, certainty as it can be explained in admission question, retrospect. One might object that uncertainty exists in all realms of aaron, science. But while Werner Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle in quantum mechanics is subject to YERSINIA, the laws of dinkin, probability and statistics, the deep Knightian uncertainties of human affairs associated with the human uncertainty principle are not. Even more importantly, the central role of testing is endangered. Should the initial and admission question final conditions include or exclude the participant’s thinking? The question is important because testing requires replicating those conditions.
If the participants’ thinking is included, it is difficult to determine what the initial and final conditions are because the dinkin participants’ views can only be inferred from their statements or actions. If the participants’ thinking is excluded, the initial and YERSINIA REPORT final conditions do not constitute singular observations because the same objective conditions may be associated with very different subjective views. In either case, testing cannot meet the requirements of Popper’s scheme. Dinkin! This limitation does not preclude social sciences from producing worthwhile generalizations, but they are unlikely to match the predictive power of the laws of admission, physics. Empirical testing ought to dissertation, play a central role in writing theology dissertation, social science as well but it should not be expected to produce universal and timeless generalizations with symmetrical and dissertation reversible explanatory and predictive powers. This point will be elaborated at the end of Section 4. The structure of events. I contend that situations that have thinking participants have a different structure from PESTIS GOVERNMENT, natural phenomena. The difference lies in the role thinking plays.
In natural phenomena, thinking plays no causal role. Dissertation! Events unfold irrespective of the views held by the observers. The structure of flight essay, natural events can be described as a chain of cause and effect generating a steam of dinkin dissertation, objective facts, without any interference from the subjective aspects of reality (see Figure 2). In natural science, the outside observer is engaged only in the cognitive function, and the facts provide a reliable criterion by which the truth of the observers’ theories can be judged. So the outside observer can obtain knowledge about the natural phenomena she is admission, observing. Based on that knowledge, nature can be successfully manipulated. That manipulation may change the aaron dinkin state of the physical world, but it does not change the laws that govern that world. We can use our understanding of the physical world to create airplanes, but the essay invention of the airplane did not change the laws of aerodynamics. By contrast, in human affairs, thinking is part of the subject matter The course of dissertation, events leads not only from facts to facts but also from facts to the participants’ perceptions (the cognitive function) and from the participants’ decisions to facts (the manipulative function). Figure 3 is a simplified presentation of the structure of social events. It illustrates that there is only one objective aspect but as many subjective aspects of reality as there are thinking participants.
The reflexive feedback loops between the objective and subjective aspects of reality create a lace-like pattern, which is superimposed on GOVERNMENT the direct line leading from one set of facts to the next and deflects it from what it would be if there were no feedback loops. The feedback sometimes brings the aaron dinkin subjective and objective aspects closer together and sometimes drives them further apart. The two aspects are aligned, but only loosely – the human uncertainty principle implies that a perfect alignment is the exception rather than the rule. Figure 3 Social phenomena. Popper’s scheme would require social scientists to produce generalizations of universal and timeless validity that determine the alignment of the objective and grading rubric school subjective aspects of reality. If the human uncertainty principle is dissertation, valid, that is an impossible task. Yet, the achievements of natural science, exemplified by in our, Newtonian physics, were so alluring that economists and dissertation other social scientists have tried incredibly hard to establish such generalizations. They suffered from what I like to call ‘physics envy.’ In order to achieve the impossible, they invented or postulated some kind of fixed relationship between the participants’ thinking and the actual course of events. Research Paper Rubric High! Karl Marx asserted that the material conditions of dinkin, production determined the ideological superstructure; Freud maintained that people’s behavior was determined by part 1 essay question, the unconscious. Both claimed scientific status for their theories but Popper rightly argued that their theories could not be falsified by testing.
However, Popper did not go far enough. The same argument applies to the mainstream economic theory currently taught in universities. It is an axiomatic system based on deductive logic, not on dinkin dissertation empirical evidence. If the axioms are true, so are the to kill a mockingbird question mathematical deductions. In this regard, economic theory resembles Euclidian geometry. But Euclid’s postulates are modeled on conditions prevailing in the real world while at least some of the postulates of economics, notably rational choice and rational expectations, are dictated by the desire to imitate Newtonian physics rather than real-world evidence. This ill-fated attempt by economists to slavishly imitate physics has a long history.
The process started with the theory of perfect competition, which postulated perfect knowledge. That postulate was later modified to universally available perfect information. When that postulate proved inadequate Lionel Robbins, who was my professor at the London School of Economics, defined the dissertation task of economics as the allocation of limited means to chemistry essay, unlimited alternative ends (Robbins, 1932). He specifically excluded the aaron dissertation study of the writing theology dissertation means and the ends themselves. Aaron Dinkin! By taking the prevailing values and methods of production as given he eliminated reflexivity as a possible subject of study for economics. Subsequently, this approach reached its apex with the rational expectations and to kill question efficient market hypotheses in the 1960s and dinkin 1970s. To be sure, physics envy is not unjustified. The achievements of natural science stand as convincing testimony to man’s ability to use reason. Unfortunately, these achievements do not ensure that human behavior is always governed by reason. Human uncertainty as an impediment to in our everyday essay, scientific method.
The human uncertainty principle not only aaron dissertation, prevents the of solomon essay social sciences from producing results comparable to physics; it interferes with scientific method in other ways as well. I shall mention only aaron dinkin, one of them. As we have seen, natural phenomena provide a genuinely independent criterion for judging the validity of generalizations but the facts produced by social processes do not do so because they are influenced by PESTIS, theories held by participants. This makes social theories themselves subject to reflexivity. In other words, they serve not only a cognitive but also a manipulative function. To be sure, the dinkin generalizations and observations of natural scientists are also theory laden, and they influence the selection of REPORT, facts but they do not influence the facts themselves. Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle showed that the act of observation impacts a quantum system. But the discovery of the aaron dinkin dissertation uncertainty principle itself did not alter the behavior of quantum particles one iota. The principle applied before Heisenberg discovered it and will continue to apply long after human observers are gone. But social theories – whether Marxism, market fundamentalism, or the theory of reflexivity – can affect the subject matter to which they refer.
Scientific method is writing theology, supposed to aaron dinkin dissertation, be devoted to the pursuit of everyday essay, truth. But why should social science confine itself to passively studying social phenomena when it can be used to actively change the state of affairs? The temptation to use social theories to change reality rather than to understand it is much greater than in natural science. Indeed, economists commonly talk about normative versus positive economics – but there is no such thing as normative physics. Dinkin! That is a fundamental difference between natural and social science that needs to be recognized. A spectrum between physical and 1 essay question social sciences. In my argument, I have drawn a sharp distinction between the social and natural sciences. Dissertation! But such dichotomies are usually not found in reality; rather we introduce them in our efforts to make some sense out of an otherwise confusing reality. Indeed, while the dichotomy between physics and social sciences seems clear cut, there are other sciences, such as biology and cornell question the study of dinkin, animal societies, that occupy intermediate positions. The distinction I have drawn between natural and social science consists of the presence or absence of thinking participants’ who have a will of their own.
That begs the essay question of what constitutes a ‘thinking participant.’ One might reasonably ask whether a chimpanzee, a dolphin, or a computerized stock-trading program is a thinking participant. In some fields, superior data crunching capacity may trump the aaron dinkin human imagination, as the chess contest between Big Blue and Gary Kasparov has shown. Rubric School! And automatic trading systems appear to be currently outperforming hedge funds run by humans. However, I would note that humans have some unique characteristics, notably language, emotions, and culture. Both our individual and shared subjective realities are far richer and more complex than any other creature’s. I contend that there are some problems that set natural and social science a part. I have focused on reflexivity as one such fundamental problem area.
It presents itself in both the subject matter and dissertation its scientific study, so that it may be conveniently treated as two closely interrelated problems. Humans are thinking agents and their thinking serves two functions: cognitive and manipulative. Theology! In the subject matter, the problem presents itself as the human uncertainty principle, also known as Knightian uncertainty. That has no equivalent in aaron, natural science. For scientific method, the in our everyday essay problem is more complicated because scientists are also human beings and their thinking also serves two functions. Dissertation! This problem presents itself in both natural and social science, but analysis of the various possible solutions yields different results. Science is writing, a discipline that seeks to perfect the dinkin cognitive function by artificially isolating itself from the manipulative function.
It does so by submitting itself to a number of conventions such as insisting on empirical tests that can be replicated and/or observed by YERSINIA PESTIS REPORT, others. Popper’s scheme shows what natural science can achieve by obeying those rules and conventions. As I have shown, the human uncertainty principle prevents social science from matching these achievements. But there is also a flip side to aaron dissertation, be considered: what happens when those rules and conventions are not observed? Remember that my criterion of demarcation between natural and life social science is that the latter is reflexive, the former is not. In other words, social science can change objective reality by influencing the participants’ views, but natural science cannot because its subject matter has no thinking participants. That is what I meant when I remarked in The Alchemy of Finance, that the alchemists made a mistake in trying to dinkin, change the nature of base metals by flight, incantation.
Instead, they should have focused their attention on the financial markets, where they could have succeeded. Now I need to take my analysis further. Natural science can work wonders as long as it follows Popper’s scheme because it has a purely objective criterion, namely the facts, by which the truth or validity of aaron dinkin dissertation, its laws can be judged, but it cannot produce anything worthwhile by cheating on the testing process. Cars that do not obey the laws of physics will not move; airplanes will not fly. How about social science? We have seen that Popper’s scheme cannot be expected to produce comparable results. On the research paper rubric high school other hand, social theories also serve a manipulative function and their influence on objective reality may prove quite satisfactory from the point of view of their proponents – at dissertation, least for a while, until objective reality reasserts itself and the outcome fails to correspond to expectations.
There are many statements that fit this pattern. President Obama managed to make the post 2008 recession shorter and shallower by theology dissertation, asserting that the economy was fundamentally sound and promising a speedy recovery, but he paid a heavy political price when reality failed to live up to his promises. Aaron Dinkin Dissertation! Fed chairman Alan Greenspan operated much the same way, but his Delphic utterances were more difficult to prove wrong. Both Freud and Marx sought to gain acceptance for their theories by song of solomon flight essay, claiming scientific status. One of the most interesting cases is the efficient market hypothesis and its political companion, market fundamentalism. We shall see that the mechanism that provides some degree of justification for aaron, the claim that markets are always right is reflexivity, not rational expectations. Yet, a false explanation can be subjectively more appealing than what I consider to be the true one. The efficient market hypothesis allows economic theory to lay claim to the status of a hard science like physics. PESTIS! And market fundamentalism allows the dinkin dissertation financially successful to claim that they are serving the public interest by pursing their self-interest. Writing Dissertation! That is a powerful combination that dominated the field until it caused a lot of damage in the financial crisis of 2007/2008.
Surprisingly it survived that debacle: the conservative wing of the aaron dissertation Republican party managed to pin the blame for the financial crisis on the government rather than on the private sector. Cornell Question! To correct the mistake of viewing economics as equivalent to a hard science, I will propose a methodological convention. A methodological convention. I propose renouncing Popper’s doctrine of the unity of science and recognizing a fundamental difference between natural and dinkin social phenomena – not as an empirical truth but as a methodological convention. The convention asserts that social science cannot be expected to produce results comparable with physics by using the admission essay same methods; however, it sets no limits on aaron what social science may be able to accomplish by employing different methods. The convention will protect scientific method by preventing the social sciences from parading with borrowed feathers. REPORT! It should not be taken, however, as a demotion or devaluation of social science. On the contrary, it should open up new vistas by aaron dissertation, liberating social science from the slavish imitation of natural science and by protecting it from being judged by the wrong standards. The limits and promise of social science. Interestingly, both Karl Popper and Friedrich Hayek recognized in their famous exchange in the pages of Economica(Popper, 1944) that the song of solomon essay social sciences cannot produce results comparable with physics.
Hayek inveighed against the mechanical and uncritical application of the quantitative methods of natural science. He called it ‘scientism.’ and Popper wrote The Poverty of Historicism (1957) in which he argued that history is not determined by universally valid scientific laws. Nevertheless, Popper proclaimed what he called the ‘doctrine of the unity of method,’ by aaron dinkin, which he meant that both natural and social sciences should use the same methods and be judged by the same criteria. By proclaiming the doctrine, Popper sought to distinguish pseudo-scientific theories like those of Marx and Freud from mainstream economics. As mentioned earlier, Popper did not go far enough: rational choice theory and song of solomon flight essay the efficient market hypothesis are just as pseudo-scientific as Marxist and dinkin Freudian theories. As I see it, the implication of the human uncertainty principle is that the subject matter of the natural and social sciences is YERSINIA PESTIS REPORT, fundamentally different; therefore, they need to develop different methods and should be held to different standards. Economic theory should not be expected to meet the standards established by Newtonian physics. In fact, if it did produce universally valid laws, as Knight (1921, p. 28) pointed out, economic profit itself would be impossible: if all changes were to take place in accordance with invariable and universally known laws, [so that] they could be foreseen for an indefinite period in advance of their occurrence, … profit or loss would not arise. I contend that Popper’s scheme cannot produce results in the human sphere comparable with the amazing achievement of physics. The slavish imitation of natural science can easily produce misleading results, sometimes with disastrous consequences. A methodological convention that merely asserts that social sciences should not be confined to the same methods and be judged by the same criteria as the natural sciences may not seem like an adequate remedy for the ills I have identified.
But look at aaron, the straightjacket Lionel Robbins imposed on economics: it prevented economists from recognizing reflexivity and theology encouraged the development of synthetic financial instruments and dinkin dissertation risk management techniques that ignore Knightian uncertainty with disastrous consequences from which we have not yet found an escape. I admit that the a mockingbird part question proposed methodological convention is only a starting point and it begs the question of what social scientists should do, what methods they should use, and by what criteria they should be judged. Others writing in aaron, this journal may have specific answers; I have only a partial one. Any valid methodology of social science must explicitly recognize both fallibility and reflexivity and the Knightian uncertainty they create. Empirical testing ought to remain a decisive criterion for judging whether a theory qualifies as scientific, but in light of the human uncertainty principle in admission, social systems it cannot always be as rigorous as Popper’s scheme requires.
Nor can universally and timelessly valid theories be expected to dinkin dissertation, yield determinate predictions because future events are contingent on future decisions, which are based on imperfect knowledge. Time- and context-bound generalizations may yield more specific explanations and predictions than timeless and universal generalizations.1. Financial markets provide an excellent laboratory for testing the research grading rubric high ideas I have put forward in the previous sections. The course of events is easier to dinkin, observe than in paper rubric high school, most other areas. Many of the facts take a quantitative form, and the data are well recorded and well preserved. Aaron Dinkin Dissertation! The opportunity for testing occurs because my interpretation of of solomon essay, financial markets directly contradicts the efficient market hypothesis, which has been the prevailing paradigm. The efficient market hypothesis claims that markets tend toward equilibrium and that deviations occur in a random fashion and can be attributed to exogenous shocks. Aaron Dinkin! It is rubric, then a testable proposition whether the efficient market hypothesis or my theory of reflexivity is better at explaining and predicting events. I contend that my theory of aaron dinkin, reflexivity is superior, even in its current rudimentary stage of development for explaining and predicting financial markets in general, and historical events like the financial crisis of 2007–2008 and the subsequent euro crisis in particular. My conceptual framework. Let me state the three key concepts of my approach, fallibility, reflexivity, and everyday essay the human uncertainty principle as they apply to the financial markets.
First, fallibility. Market prices of financial assets do not accurately reflect their fundamental value because they do not even aim to do so. Prices reflect market participants’ expectations of aaron dinkin dissertation, future market prices. Moreover, market participants are subject to fallibility; consequently, their expectations about the discounted present value of future earnings flows are likely to diverge from reality. The divergence may range from the negligible to the significant. Flight Essay! This is in direct contradiction of the efficient market hypothesis, which does not admit fallibility. Second, reflexivity. Instead of aaron, playing a purely passive role in reflecting an underlying reality, financial markets also have an active role: they can affect the future earnings flows they are supposed to reflect.
That is the YERSINIA PESTIS point that behavioral economists have missed. Behavioral economics focuses on only half of the reflexive process: cognitive fallibility leading to the mispricing of aaron dinkin dissertation, assets; they do not concern themselves with the effects that mispricing can have on the fundamentals. There are various pathways by of solomon essay, which the mispricing of financial assets can affect the so-called fundamentals. Aaron Dissertation! The most widely used are those that involve the writing theology dissertation use of leverage – both debt and equity leveraging. For instance, companies can improve their earnings per-share by issuing shares at inflated prices – at least for a while. Markets may give the impression that they are always right, but the mechanism at work is very different from that implied by the prevailing paradigm. Third, the human uncertainty principle turns what economic theory treats as timeless generalizations into dinkin, a time-bound historical process.
If agents act on the basis of their perfect understanding, equilibrium is far from a universally and everyday life essay timelessly prevailing condition of financial markets. Markets may just as easily tend away from a putative equilibrium as toward it. Instead of universally and aaron dinkin timelessly prevailing, equilibrium becomes an extreme condition in which subjective market expectations correspond to objective reality. Theoretically such a correspondence could be brought about by either the writing theology cognitive or the aaron dinkin dissertation manipulative function by chemistry, itself – either perceptions can change to match reality or perceptions can lead to actions which change reality to match perceptions. But in practice such a correspondence is more likely to dinkin, be the product of a reflexive interaction between the two functions.
Whereas economics views equilibrium as the normal, indeed necessary state of writing theology dissertation, affairs, I view such periods of stability as exceptional. Rather I focus on the reflexive feedback loops that characterize financial markets and dinkin dissertation cause them to writing theology, be changing over time. Negative versus positive feedback loops. Reflexive feedback loops can be either negative or positive. Negative feedback brings the aaron participants’ views and the actual situation closer together; positive feedback drives them further apart. In other words, a negative feedback process is self-correcting. It can go on forever and if there are no significant changes in external reality, it may eventually lead to an equilibrium in paper school, which the participants’ views come to correspond to the actual state of affairs. That is aaron dinkin, what rational expectations theory expects to happen in financial markets. Essay! It postulates that there is a single correct set of expectations that people’s views will converge around and deviations are random – there are no systematic errors between participants’ forecasts and what comes to pass.
That postulate has no resemblance to reality, but it is a core tenet of economics as it is dinkin, currently taught in universities and even used in the models of central banks. In practice, market participants’ expectations diverge from reality to a greater or lesser extent and their errors may be correlated and chemistry life essay significantly biased. Aaron! That is the generic cause of price distortions. So equilibrium, which is the central case in mainstream economic theory, turns out to be an extreme case of negative feedback, alimiting case in my conceptual framework. Since equilibrium is admission essay question, so extreme that it is unlikely to prevail in reality, I prefer to speak of near-equilibrium conditions. By contrast, a positive feedback process is dissertation, self-reinforcing. It cannot go on forever because eventually the participants’ views would become so far removed from objective reality that the participants would have to essay, recognize them as unrealistic. Nor can the iterative process occur without any change in the actual state of affairs, because positive feedback reinforces whatever tendency prevails in the real world. Instead of equilibrium, we are faced with a dynamic disequilibrium, or what may be described as far-from-equilibrium situations. There are myriad feedback loops at work in financial markets at any point of time. Some of them are positive, others negative.
As long as they are more or less in balance they cancel out dinkin each other and market fluctuations do not have a definite direction. I compare these swings to the waves sloshing around in a swimming pool as opposed to the tides and currents that may prevail when positive feedbacks preponderate. Since positive feedbacks are self-reinforcing occasionally they may become so big that they overshadow all other happenings in the market. Negative feedback loops tend to be more ubiquitous but positive feedback loops are more interesting because they can cause big moves both in market prices and in the underlying fundamentals. Of Solomon Flight Essay! A positive feedback process that runs its full course is aaron dinkin dissertation, initially self-reinforcing in song flight, one direction, but eventually it is liable to reach a climax or reversal point, after which it becomes self-reinforcing in the opposite dinkin dissertation, direction. But positive feedback processes do not necessarily run their full course; they may be aborted at any time by in our everyday essay, negative feedback. Building on these ideas, I have developed a theory about boom–bust processes, or bubbles (Soros, 1987, 2008). Every bubble has two components: an underlying trend that prevails in reality and a misconception relating to that trend (see Figure 4).
A boom–bust process is dinkin, set in motion when a trend and a misconception positively reinforce each other. 1 Essay! The process is liable to dinkin, be tested by negative feedback along the way, giving rise to climaxes which may or may not turn out to be genuine. If a trend is strong enough to survive the test, both the trend and the misconception will be further reinforced. YERSINIA REPORT! Eventually, market expectations become so far removed from aaron dissertation, reality that people are forced to recognize that a misconception is involved. To Kill A Mockingbird 1 Essay Question! A twilight period ensues during which doubts grow and more people lose faith, but the prevailing trend is sustained by dissertation, inertia. As Chuck Prince, former head of Citigroup said during the twilight of the super bubble: ‘As long as the music is in our life, playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing.’ Eventually, a point is reached when the trend is reversed, it then becomes self-reinforcing in the opposite direction. Boom–bust processes tend to be asymmetrical: booms are slow to develop and take a long time to become unsustainable, busts tend to be more abrupt, due to forced liquidation of unsustainable positions and the asymmetries introduced by leverage. Figure 4 A typical market boom–bust.
In the initial stage (AB), a new positive earning trend is dinkin dissertation, not yet recognized. Then comes a period of acceleration (BC) when the trend is chemistry in our everyday essay, recognized and reinforced by expectations. A period of testing may intervene when either earnings or expectations waiver (CD). If the positive trend and bias survive the testing, both emerge stronger. Conviction develops and is no longer shaken by a setback in earnings (DE). The gap between expectations and reality becomes wider (EF) until the moment of truth arrives when reality can no longer sustain the dissertation exaggerated expectations and the bias is cornell question, recognized as such (F).
A twilight period ensues when people continue to dinkin dissertation, play the game although they no longer believe in it (FG). Writing Dissertation! Eventually a crossover point (G) is reached when the trend turns down and aaron dinkin dissertation prices lose their last prop. This leads to a catastrophic downward acceleration (GH) commonly known as the crash. The pessimism becomes over done, earnings stabilize, and prices recover somewhat (HI). The simplest case is a real estate boom.
The trend that precipitates it is easy credit; the misconception is that the value of the paper high school collateral is aaron dinkin, independent of the availability of credit. As a matter of fact, the relationship is reflexive. When credit becomes cheaper and more easily available, activity picks up and real estate values rise. There are fewer defaults, credit performance improves, and lending standards are relaxed. So, at the height of the boom, the amount of credit involved is at its maximum and to kill part question a reversal precipitates forced liquidation, depressing real estate values. Amazingly, the misconception continues to recur in aaron, various guises. Other bubbles are based on different misconceptions. Research Grading School! For instance, the international banking crisis of 1982 revolved around sovereign debt in which case no collateral was involved. The creditworthiness of the sovereign borrowers was measured by various debt ratios, such as debt to GDP or debt service to aaron dinkin, exports. These ratios were considered objective criteria, but in fact they were reflexive. When the recycling of petro-dollars in the 1970s increased the of solomon essay flow of credit to countries like Brazil, their debt ratios improved, which encouraged further inflows and started a bubble.
In 1980, Paul Volcker raised interest rates in the USA to arrest inflation and aaron dinkin the sovereign debt bubble burst in 1982. Bubbles are not the only form in which reflexivity manifests itself. They are just the most dramatic and the most directly contradictory to the efficient market hypothesis, so they do deserve special attention. But reflexivity can take many other forms. Song Of Solomon Essay! In currency markets, for instance, the upside and downside are symmetrical so that there is no sign of an asymmetry between boom and bust. But there is no sign of equilibrium, either. Freely floating exchange rates tend to dinkin, move in large, multi-year waves.
Markets versus regulators. One of the most important and interesting reflexive interactions takes place between the financial authorities and the financial markets. Because markets do not tend toward equilibrium, they are prone to produce periodic crises. Financial crises lead to regulatory reforms. That is how central banking and the regulation of chemistry in our life essay, financial markets have evolved. Financial authorities and market participants alike act on the basis of imperfect understanding, which makes the interaction between them reflexive. While bubbles occur only intermittently, the interplay between authorities and markets is an aaron dinkin ongoing process. Misunderstandings by either side usually stay within reasonable bounds because market reactions provide useful feedback to the authorities, allowing them to correct their mistakes. But occasionally the mistakes prove to be self-validating, setting in motion vicious or virtuous circles. To Kill Part 1 Essay! Such feedback loops resemble bubbles in the sense that they are initially self-reinforcing but eventually self-defeating.
Indeed, the intervention of the authorities to deal with periodic financial crises played a crucial role in the development of a ‘super-bubble’ that burst in 2007–2008 (Soros,2008, 2009). Aaron Dinkin! The interplay between markets and regulators is PESTIS REPORT, also at the heart of the euro crisis. The euro crisis. I have been following the euro crisis closely ever since its inception. Aaron Dinkin Dissertation! I have written numerous articles that have been collected in a book (Soros, 2012). It would be impossible to summarize all my arguments for this essay; therefore, I shall focus only on the reflexive interaction between markets and authorities. Both acted on the basis of their imperfect understanding. The design of the common currency had many flaws. Some of them were known at the time the chemistry life euro was introduced.
Everybody, for example, knew that it was an incomplete currency; it had a central bank, but it did not have a common treasury. The crash of 2008, however, revealed many other deficiencies. In retrospect, the most important was that by transferring the aaron dinkin right to print to research paper high, money to an independent central bank, member countries ran the risk of default on their government bonds. In a developed country with its own currency, the risk of default is absent because it can always print money. But by ceding or transferring that right to dinkin, an independent central bank, which no member state actually controls, the question member states put themselves in the position of dinkin, third-world countries that borrow in a foreign currency. This fact was not recognized either by the markets or by the authorities prior to the crash of 2008, testifying to their fallibility. When the euro was introduced, the authorities actually declared government bonds to be riskless. Commercial banks were not required to set aside any capital reserves against their holdings of in our everyday life essay, government bonds. Dinkin! The European Central Bank (ECB) accepted all government bonds on equal terms at the discount window. This set up a perverse incentive for commercial banks to buy the debt of the weaker governments in order to paper high school, earn what eventually became just a few basis points, because interest rates on government bonds converged to practically zero. This convergence in interest rates caused divergences in economic performance.
The weaker countries enjoyed real estate and consumption booms, while Germany, which was dealing with the burden of dissertation, reunification, had to adopt fiscal austerity and structural reforms. After the Lehman bankruptcy European finance ministers declared that no other systemically important financial institution would be allowed to to kill part 1 essay question, fail; Chancellor Merkel then insisted that the obligation should fall on each country individually, not on the European Union or the aaron dinkin dissertation Eurozone collectively. That was the onset of the euro crisis. It took markets more than a year to cornell question, react to it. Only when Greece revealed a much larger than expected fiscal deficit did markets realize that Greece may actually default on its debt – and they raised risk premiums with a vengeance not only on dissertation Greek bonds but also on the bonds of all the heavily indebted member countries. A Greek default would have created a worse banking crisis than the Lehman bankruptcy. Chemistry In Our Everyday Essay! The authorities put together a number of rescue packages but they always did too little too late; so conditions in Greece continued to deteriorate.
This set a pattern for the other heavily indebted countries such as Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Ireland as well. While the actions of the ECB have calmed the markets, the crisis is still far from resolved. Dinkin Dissertation! Rather than an association of YERSINIA GOVERNMENT REPORT, equals, the dissertation Eurozone became divided into life, two classes: creditors and debtors. In a financial crisis, the aaron dissertation creditors call the shots. The policies they are imposing perpetuate the division because the debtors have to pay risk premiums, not only on YERSINIA REPORT government bonds but also on bank credit. The additional cost of dissertation, credit, which is everyday essay, a recurrent burden, makes it practically impossible for the heavily indebted countries to regain competitiveness.
This is aaron, not the result of an evil plot. It was caused by a lack of understanding of an extremely complicated reality. In my articles, I put forward a series of practical proposals that could have worked at the time but became inadequate soon thereafter. Conversely, had the authorities adopted earlier some measures that they were willing to adopt later, they could have arrested the downtrend and PESTIS GOVERNMENT REPORT then reversed it by adopting further measures. As it is, they have managed to calm the crisis, but failed to reverse the trend. This analysis emphasizes the vital role that fallibility plays in shaping the course of history: there would have been no crisis without it. It also shows that in far-from-equilibrium conditions the normal rules do not apply. One of the reasons why the crisis persists is that the Eurozone is governed by aaron dinkin, treaties that were designed for near-equilibrium conditions. Obviously economists relying on the prevailing paradigm could not have reached this conclusion. Both the in our everyday super-bubble and the euro crisis are examples of far-from-equilibrium situations.
A core difference between my approach and mainstream economics is that my framework can accommodate and explain such phenomena. Instead of declaring equilibrium as the outcome, I distinguish between near-equilibrium conditions that are characterized by random fluctuations and far-from-equilibrium situations that produce initially self-reinforcing but eventually self-defeating trends. Near-equilibrium yields humdrum, everyday events that are repetitive and lend themselves to statistical generalizations. In contrast, far-from-equilibrium conditions give rise to unique, historic events in which outcomes are uncertain but have the capacity to disrupt the statistical generalizations based on everyday events. Aaron Dissertation! Rules that can usefully guide decisions in near-equilibrium conditions can be misleading in far-from-equilibrium situations. The financial crisis of GOVERNMENT, 2007–2008 is a case in point. All the risk management tools and synthetic financial products that were based on the assumption that price deviations from a putative equilibrium occur in a random fashion broke down, and dinkin those who relied on chemistry everyday mathematical models that had served them well in near-equilibrium conditions got badly hurt. In the 1960s, the mathematician Mandelbrot (1963) discovered that the price movements of financial assets sometimes exhibit ‘fat tails’ – more extreme events than a normal Gaussian distribution would predict. This finding has since been confirmed by much research. I believe that my conceptual framework can at least partially explain the fat tail phenomenon. Reality feeds the participants so much information that they need to dinkin dissertation, introduce dichotomies and other simplifying devices to make some sense of it.
The simplest way to introduce order is binary division; hence, the tendency to in our essay, use dichotomies. When markets switch from one side of aaron dinkin dissertation, a dichotomy to another the a mockingbird transition can be quite violent. The tipping point is difficult to dinkin dissertation, predict but it is associated with a sharp increase in volatility, which manifests itself in fat tails. Toward a new paradigm. One of the most powerful concepts for purposes of simplification is the concept of change. In my first philosophical essay (Soros, 1962, 2006) written under the influence of Karl Popper, I used the concept of change to build models of social systems and a mockingbird part reflexively connect them to modes of thinking. I linked organic society with the aaron traditional mode of research paper high school, thinking, open society with the critical mode, and closed society with the dogmatic mode. It can be seen that my conceptual framework extends to a much broader area than that covered by economic theory. But financial markets provide the best laboratory for studying far-from-equilibrium situations at work because they manifest themselves in fat tails that can be clearly observed in the data.
They can be studied in aaron dinkin, other fields as well, but only in the form of flight essay, a historical narrative, as I have done in my analysis of the euro crisis, which weaves together politics with financial economics. Reflexivity has been largely neglected until recently because it connects different fields studied by different disciplines. The same applies to my entire conceptual framework: it connects ideas with reality. Reality has been broken up into dinkin dissertation, narrow fields of specialization. This has brought great benefits but it has a major drawback: philosophy that deals with reality as a whole has fallen out of favor. It needs to be rehabilitated.
Mainstream economics tried to seal itself off from reality by relying on postulates that turned out to be far removed from reality. The financial crisis of 2007/2008 and a mockingbird part question subsequent events exposed the weakness of this approach. The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers was also the bankruptcy of the prevailing paradigm. There is urgent need for a new one. This essay has shown that my interpretation of dissertation, financial markets – based on my theory of reflexivity – is radically different from orthodox economics based on efficient markets and rational expectations. Strictly speaking, both interpretations are pseudo-scientific by Popper’s standards.
That is why I called my first book ‘The Alchemy of Finance’. And that is why some proponents of the efficient market hypothesis still defend it in the face of all the evidence. Nevertheless, I contend that my interpretation yields better explanations and predictions than the prevailing paradigm. How can I reconcile this claim with my starting contention that the future is inherently uncertain and financial markets are inherently unpredictable? By resorting to Popper’s logic of everyday, scientific discovery. As a market participant, I formulate conjectures and expose them to refutation. I also assume that other market participants are doing the dinkin same thing whether they realize it or not. Their expectations are usefully aggregated in market prices.
I can therefore compare my own expectations with prevailing prices. When I see a divergence, I see a profit opportunity. The bigger the divergence, the bigger the to kill a mockingbird part question opportunity. Aaron Dissertation! Popper made a similar assertion about scientific hypotheses. Philosophers of science roundly criticized him for this on the grounds that the predictive power of scientific theories cannot be quantified. It may not work for scientific theories, but I can testify from a mockingbird question, personal experience that it does work in the alchemy of financial markets. When the price behavior contradicts my expectations I have to dissertation, re-examine my hypothesis. If I find myself proven wrong, I take a loss; if I conclude that the market is wrong, I increase my bet, always taking into admission essay question, account the risk that I am bound to aaron dissertation, be wrong some of the paper school time. This works well in markets that are efficient in aaron dissertation, the sense that transaction costs are minimal; it does not work in private equity investments that are not readily marketable. Chemistry In Our Everyday! My performance record bears this out.
I was successful in markets but not in private equities. My approach can also be useful in formulating policy recommendations as my articles on the euro crisis demonstrate (Soros, 2012). Ever since the Crash of 2008 there has been a widespread recognition, both among economists and the general public, that economic theory has failed. But there is no consensus on the causes and the extent of that failure. I have argued that the failure is more profound than generally recognized. It goes back to the foundations of economic theory. Economics tried to model itself on Newtonian physics. Dinkin! It sought to establish universally and timelessly valid laws governing reality. But economics is a social science and there is a fundamental difference between the natural and question social sciences. Dinkin! Social phenomena have thinking participants who cannot base their decisions on perfect knowledge; yet, they cannot avoid making decisions since avoiding them also counts as a decision. They introduce an element of indeterminacy into the course of human events that is absent in the behavior of grading high school, inanimate objects.
The resulting uncertainty hinders the social sciences in aaron dissertation, producing laws similar to song essay, Newton’s physics. Yet, once we recognize this difference it frees us to develop new approaches to the study of social phenomena. While they have not yet been fully developed they hold out great promise. The stakes could not be higher. The mistaken theories that allowed the ‘super bubble’ to build, the policy errors that were made in the wake of the crash, and the ongoing mishandling of the euro crisis highlight the human suffering that can result from a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of economic systems. Recognizing the implications of our fallibility will be a great improvement in dinkin dissertation, our understanding. Interpreting the economy as a reflexive system may not prevent future bubbles, crashes, or policy errors. Writing Theology! But it may enable deeper insights into economic and socio-political phenomena and help humankind to better manage its affairs in the future. I realize that my approach is still very rudimentary. For most of my life, I developed it in aaron dinkin dissertation, the privacy of my own mind. Only in recent years, did I have the benefit of substantive criticism.
It remains to be seen whether my conceptual framework can develop into PESTIS, a new paradigm. Much depends on aaron dinkin dissertation whether reflexive feedback loops can be properly modeled. There is an obvious problem: Knightian uncertainty cannot be quantified. But it is possible to identify trends without quantifying them and changes in trends without specifying the time of theology, their occurrence. Aaron! That is what I have done in my boom–bust model (Figure 4). We can also use volatility, which is quantifiable, as a substitute for uncertainty. And there may be other techniques that address these issues such as Imperfect Knowledge Economics (Frydman Goldberg, 2013) or new approaches yet to be invented.
The new paradigm is bound to cornell question, be very different from the one that failed. It cannot be timeless; it must recognize that some changes are non-recurring while others exhibit statistical regularities. Moreover, economic theory will not be able to seal itself off from other disciplines and from reality. Aaron! It cannot confine itself to studying the allocation of limited means among unlimited alternative ends; it will have to take into account the impact the allocation may have on prevailing values and methods of production. Obviously, I shall not be able to develop my ideas on my own. That is why I am so pleased that the Journal of Economic Methodology is publishing this special issue.
1.Postscript: When I wrote this article I was troubled by drawing an overly sharp distinction between the natural and social sciences. Song Flight! Beinhocker’s (2013) article in this symposium and dinkin dissertation a workshop at the Central European University on 8 October 2013 led me to modify my views on separating the PESTIS REPORT two. I still think that the methodological convention I proposed is needed in the near term in order to break the stranglehold of rational choice theory, but I realize it could do more harm than good in the long term. As I stated above, there is dinkin, a spectrum between physical and social sciences. Beinhocker is right in arguing that we should study the spectrum rather than attributing reflexivity exclusively to the domain of the social sciences. There are many similarities between human and non-human complex systems, which could be obfuscated by the proposed convention. Cornell Admission! Instead of denying the unity of science we ought to redefine scientific method so that it is not confined to Popper’s model. · 1. Beinhocker, E. D. (2013). Reflexivity, complexity and the nature of social science.
Journal of Economic Methodology, 20, 330–342. [Taylor Francis Online] · 2. Frydman, R., Goldberg, M. D. Dissertation! (2013). The imperfect knowledge imperative in macroeconomics and finance theory. Question! In R.Frydman E. S.Phelps (Eds.), Rethinking expectations: The way forward for macroeconomics (pp. Dinkin! 130–168). Research Paper! Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, Chapter 4. · 3. Keynes, J. M. (1936).
The general theory of employment, interest, and money. New York, NY: Harcourt Brace. · 4. Knight, F. H. Dinkin! (1921). Risk, uncertainty, and profit. Research Grading School! Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin. · 5. Mandelbrot, B. (1963). The variation of certain speculative prices. Journal of Business, 36, 394–419. [CrossRef] · 6. Merton, R. Dissertation! K. (1949). Social theory and admission essay social structure. New York, NY: Free Press.
· 7. Popper, K. (1935/1959). Aaron! Logik der Forschung. Vienna. First English edition (1959) The logic of scientific discovery. Cornell Admission Essay Question! London: HutchinsonVerlag von Julius Springer. [CrossRef] · 8. Popper, K. (1944). The poverty of historicism, II. Aaron Dinkin Dissertation! A criticism of historicist methods. Economica, 43, 119–137.[CrossRef] · 9. Popper, K. (1945). The open society and its enemies.
London: Routledge. · 10. Popper, K. (1957). The poverty of historicism. London: Routledge. · 11. YERSINIA GOVERNMENT REPORT! Robbins, L. (1932). An essay on the nature and dissertation significance of chemistry in our, economic science.
London: MacMillan. · 12. Soros, G. (1962). Burden of consciousness. (unpublished; revised version included in Soros (2006)). · 13. Soros, G. (1987). Dissertation! The alchemy of research paper grading high school, finance.
Hoboken, NJ: Wiley Sons. · 14. Soros, G. (1998). The crisis of global capitalism: Open society endangered. Dinkin! New York, NY: Public Affairs. · 15. Soros, G. Essay! (2000). Open society: Reforming global capitalism. New York, NY: Public Affairs. · 16.
Soros, G. (2006). The age of fallibility: Consequences of the war on terror. New York, NY: Public Affairs. · 17. Soros, G. (2008). The new paradigm for financial markets the credit crisis and what it means. New York, NY: Public Affairs. · 18. Soros, G. (2009).
The crash of dinkin dissertation, 2008 and what it means: The new paradigm for financial markets. New York, NY: Public Affairs. · 19. Chemistry In Our Essay! Soros, G. (2010). The Soros lectures at the Central European University. New York, NY: Public Affairs. · 20. Soros, G. (2012).
Financial turmoil in the United States and dinkin Europe: Essays. Chemistry Everyday Life! New York, NY: Public Affairs.
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NYU Steinhardt School of Culture, Education, and Human Development. This section describes the dissertation format that all NYUSteinhardt doctoral candidates are required to follow. Dissertations must adhere to these requirements in order to be accepted by the Office of Doctoral Studies for the scheduling of the final oral examination. Please read this section carefully and aaron dinkin dissertation contact the Office of to kill 1 essay Doctoral Studies if you have any questions. Faculty policy leaves the choice of a style manual to the doctoral candidate with the aaron dinkin dissertation, advice and consent of his or her committee. Generally, candidates are urged to learn and use the manual most often required for scholarly writing by journals within their disciplines. Typically, the following style manuals are used by cornell admission question, NYUSteinhardt students: The most recent editions of the chosen style manuals should be used. Your printer must produce consistently black letters and consistent margins.
Sufficient darkness is also necessary for any supporting materials, such as tables, figures, drawings, pictures, etc., -- either as originals or as copies -- that you may need to append or insert in dinkin dissertation your manuscript. Your dissertation will be published by ProQuest UMI which requires clear, high-contrast characters and images. Of Solomon Flight Essay? As a guide to the quality that will be obtained, you can photocopy a sample page at 75% reduction to evaluate the readability and clarity of the aaron dissertation, print. The School and ProQuest UMI allow students to use typefaces that are between 10 and 12 points; however, because 10 point can appear too small in to kill most typefaces, 12 point is dissertation generally preferred. A smaller or condensed typeface can be used for tables that otherwise might not fit across a page within the cornell question, correct margins, however, mixing typefaces is otherwise not recommended. Underlining or italics may be used for statistical symbols, book titles, or definitions (but use either one or the other consistently throughout your manuscript, including tables). Headings should be underlined when appropriate and not italicized.
Bold type should not be used in the manuscript. Do not justify the dissertation, right margin of your text; keep it left aligned like the text shown here. To assure proper binding and for ease of reading, the theology dissertation, following margins are required: Left margin : one and one-half inches for dinkin dissertation all pages . Right margin : one and one-half inches for all pages , with no intrusion of PESTIS GOVERNMENT REPORT letters or anything else into the right margin. Dinkin? Top margin : one-and-one-quarter inches for all pages except the first page of the Acknowledgments, Table of Contents, List of Tables, List of Figures, each chapter, Bibliography, and Appendices which should begin two inches from the top edge of the cornell question, page. Bottom margin : one-and-one-quarter inches for all pages. Page numbers for all pages preceding page 1 of Chapter I (lower case roman numerals for Acknowledgments, Table of Contents, etc.) should be placed three-quarters of an inch from the aaron dinkin, bottom of the page, centered between the left and right margins. Page numbers from page 1 of essay question Chapter I through the last page of the last appendix should be placed three-quarters of an dinkin dissertation inch from the top or bottom, centered between the left and research paper grading high right margins. See the next section for sample dissertation pages. Avoid leaving more than two inches of white space without type. This applies to tables and figures as well as to text.
A table or figure should be inserted in the text as soon after it is first referred to where it will fit in its entirety on one page. Leave three blank lines between a table and text or text and a table; the same for figures. Continue your text if you can fit at aaron dissertation, least four lines after it. You may have more than one table on a page and you may have a table, discussion, and a table. The same procedure applies to all illustrative material. Double space the entire manuscript with these exceptions (which should be single-spaced): chapter titles, appendix titles, headings, and subheadings of more than one line; block quotations; column headings and lines that run on in tables; bibliography or references entries -- double space between entries; footnotes; figure captions; explanatory material for figures, tables, and illustrations; and appendices -- the spacing will vary depending on the source and content. APA style requires writers to double space all typed material, including the exceptions noted above.
If you are using APA, the above rules supersede APA rules in most cases. You have the option, however, of double spacing your references and block quotations; MLA style users also have this option. The title page is song essay counted as page one and dissertation the copyright page as page two, but numbers do not appear on them. Lower case roman numerals (iii, iv, v, vi, etc.) are used for all subsequent pages up to the first page of the text (page 1 of to kill a mockingbird Chapter I) and should be placed three quarters of an inch from the bottom edge of the paper, centered between the margins. Beginning with page 1 of dissertation Chapter I, Arabic numbers are used and are continuous through the last page including all appendices. Page numbers for all pages in the chapter, including the theology dissertation, first page of each chapter or major section, should be placed three quarters of an aaron inch from the top or bottom edge of the paper centered between the cornell admission, margins. The material of your manuscript should be ordered as follows:
title page; copyright page; acknowledgments; table of contents; list(s) of tables, figures, charts, graphs, musical examples, illustrations, etc., if used; preface or forward, if used; the text; bibliography; and appendices (if any). Please see the sample title page below. You are required to follow that format exactly. You will have the option to have your dissertation copyrighted when you submit it to Proquest/UMI for dissertation publication. Question? You should include a copyright page with your name and copyright date in the middle of the page, centered left to right (between the margins) and top to aaron dinkin dissertation, bottom. Please note that the copyright date is the year of your degree conferral. Follow this format: The copyright page is page ii of the cornell admission question, pages preceding the text (the title page is understood to dinkin, be page i), but no number should appear on either the title page or the copyright page. Table of research paper grading Contents and Lists of Tables and Figures. Because a dissertation does not have an index, your Table of Contents should be as comprehensive as possible. Aaron Dissertation? Include all headings and subheadings, exactly as they appear in the text, up to and including Level 2. Cornell Question? Including lower level headings is aaron optional. (See sample Table of Contents in the next section.) Note that the indentation of YERSINIA PESTIS GOVERNMENT REPORT a heading used in the Table of Contents corresponds to the level of the heading.
The following illustrates this: You should supply the reader with lists of tables, figures, and any other illustrative material used in your dissertation. See the sample lists in the next section. Lists of aaron dissertation musical examples or reproductions of art, or information about films, follow the same form as that used for lists of tables and figures. Chapter headings and to kill part 1 essay titles appear as follows, beginning two inches from the top of the dinkin, page: Headings within the chapter should indicate the weight you assign to particular ideas by the form of headings suggested in the style manual you have selected or the form suggested below. Leave three blank lines (i.e., begin typing after two double spaces) before each heading and after each major section and chapter title. If one heading immediately follows another, leave only one blank line (a double space) between the two.
Leave one blank line (a double space) after each heading. Capitalize the first letter of each word of headings except for articles, conjunctions, and prepositions. The following is one way in which to order headings and to type them. YERSINIA GOVERNMENT REPORT? Students following APA style may use the aaron, format in in our everyday the APA Style Guide, however, the format below is preferred for NYU Steinhardt dissertations. See the sample page 1 in the next section for an example of heading placement. Be sure that no heading appears at aaron dissertation, the bottom of a page without at least two lines of text beneath it. A Mockingbird Part 1 Essay Question? The Table of Contents will contain all Level 1 and Level 2 headings exactly as they appear in the text. It is not necessary to include Level 3 or lower-level headings in the Table of Contents, but you may if it provides the reader with more useful information. Chapter numbers are upper case roman numerals (with no period), e.g., CHAPTER IV, to differentiate them from any other numbers in dinkin dissertation the text. All other items requiring numbers should have Arabic numbers. Appendices, should be designated by of solomon flight essay, capital letters, e.g., APPENDIX A, APPENDIX B, etc.
Use numbers or letters for other items only when necessary. Use 1) in the text and 1. in dissertation a set-off list; a) in the text and a. in a set-off list -- not (1) or 1). or a.), etc. Cornell Admission Essay Question? If items in a numbered list run onto two or more lines, you may let the dissertation, additional lines begin at the margin or indent the entire paragraph to the right of the numbers. Numbers beginning a sentence, as well as numbers below 10 (or, if you prefer, 12) should be spelled out when they appear within the text. Reduction of Tables and of solomon flight essay Other Materials. If a table, appendix, illustration, or graph is too wide or long, or both, to fit within the specified margins, have it reduced, or if textual material, type it using a smaller font. Whenever possible, avoid inserting tables which must be read by turning the book sideways. Aaron Dinkin? If such a table is cornell admission essay necessary, be sure to insert it with the heading to dinkin, the spine or binding.
You may also use a condensed typeface. For style guides other than APA, if you have more than one work by YERSINIA PESTIS, the same author, do not repeat his or her name over and over. Use ten underscore characters, ending with a period if the author is dinkin dissertation exactly the same as the previous one, or with a comma if the author is the writing, first of a series of new authors, as shown below. Single space the entry; double space between entries. Dinkin Dissertation? Indent the second and subsequent lines one-half inch. Note that authors with two initials have a space after the period between each initial, e.g., Smith, A. B., Jones, M. J. Do not allow initials to paper grading school, break between lines; keep them together on one line or the other. Regardless of the style guide you use, avoid having one or two lines of an entry on one page and aaron dissertation the rest of the citation on the next page. Chemistry Everyday? The entry should be cited in its entirety on one page or the aaron dissertation, other. The way you cite an author in your manuscript is based on the context. If you are attributing an idea that you paraphrased to PESTIS, someone, use the name and date (according to APA style) such as (Jones, 2002), or as shown in the first sentence below. If you are.
using a direct quotation, use the same format, but you must include the page number where you found it, as shown in the second sentence below. Also, specific information or ideas need a page number even if paraphrased. Dinkin? For example, the following brief passage refers to the same publication by admission, a hypothetical author: Review the dinkin, whole manuscript to be sure that every work referred to in the manuscript is cited in the text (or footnotes) and included in the bibliography. Four or more lines of theology a quotation should be set off from the main text with a double space, typed single spaced with no quotation marks, and the entire block indented one-half inch. Quotations within these block (or indented) quotations may use double quotations. The first line of the quotation is not indented; however, the first lines of new paragraphs within the quotation should begin with an additional indent of dinkin dissertation one-half inch. Students using APA or MLA style may double space block quotations. Each appendix should have the proper designation at in our everyday essay, the top of the first page. A title page does not need to be inserted before each one.
Use the following format, centered between the left and right margins, beginning two inches from the top of the page: PARTICIPANT CONSENT FORM. If you have material that, because of its format, needs to dinkin, have a title page (because the grading school, title doesn't fit on the same page as the material), you need to aaron dissertation, consistently use title pages for all appendices. Avoid it if you can. Research School? Again, all material in an appendix must fit within the overall page margins. It is aaron dissertation necessary to obtain letters of permission for the reproduction of any copyrighted material which exceeds the Federal law pertaining to Fair Use. Song Essay? Copies of those letters will be uploaded to Proquest UMI with your final dissertation. Copies of the letters do not need to be included in the dissertation. The abstract is a brief summary of the dinkin, contents of the dissertation. Begin typing the abstract two inches from the admission, top of a blank page with no heading. The abstract should be typed double-spaced with the same typeface and margins as the dissertation.
The length of the aaron dinkin, abstract should be limited to 350 words. The abstract title page is identical to the dissertation title page with one exception: the abstract title page has the writing theology, words An Abstract of directly above the title (see Sample Title Page in the next section). Aaron Dinkin? Each abstract is stapled in the upper left corner and kept separate from the dissertation. The chairperson of the of solomon flight, dissertation committee should sign one copy of the abstract title page. The following section includes sample dissertation pages which should be followed carefully.
Refer to the preceding section for more detailed information on format requirements. Students should follow the instructions on these sample pages rather than using a dissertation from the library (or elsewhere) as a guide. Format requirements differ from year to year and from school to aaron dinkin dissertation, school. This site, and a mockingbird part question all its contents, are Copyright by New York University. All rights reserved.
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25 Examples of aaron dissertation, Creative Graphic Design Resumes. We all know how important a resume or CV is when applying for GOVERNMENT, a job. It’s the dissertation, first thing an employer will judge you on grading, before you even get an interview. Some would even argue that this step is aaron dinkin even more important that the actual interview. All designers might have similar skills, but who has more creativity? A designer might be certified in Photoshop, but that does not mean they are creative. Knowing the software inside out is in our everyday quite handy to speed up your workflow, but what#8217;s the use if you lack the right side of the brain ? I know many designers who have no certification but in aaron return create drool worthy work. This is a common delima in of solomon flight the design field, but most firms/agencies are not blind and realize that visual work speaks for itself. A unique resume is important for many reasons.
Not only it does it resemble your personality, but it also speaks your capability and creativity. Putting more effort and thoughts into creating an impressive resume is definitely worthwhile, as it is usually the first thing any employer sees before flipping through your entire portfolio. We are here to help you gain inspiration for this challenging task. Aaron Dinkin Dissertation? So dust off your resume and give it a face-lift! Print your CV/resume onto high quality paper or card. Why? Because when someone gets a hold of it, they will feel like it needs to be taken care of and not just shoved to the side into a pile. Prior to sending out your resume be sure to have your resume professionally edited. It’s amazing how well a resume can read when “touched” by research paper rubric high school a professional editor. Use beautiful typography, everybody has the same fonts on their computer. Feel free to aaron dinkin check out our font collections . Writing Theology Dissertation? Some web designers take things a step further and create a resume based website to showoff their skills.
We have gained much feedback regarding this controversial topic, ever since our last article over a year ago. Aaron? Check out some previous comments regarding this matter, some are positive and some negative: #8220;These are all really, really bad as resumes, and a lot of of solomon flight, them are bad from dissertation a graphic design point of view. Don’t encourage people to turn in resumes like this.#8221; Anonymous. Cornell Question? #8220;It would be much better if resume’s were always in this format. You would see the creativity in every person.#8221; Fajas Colombianas. #8220;I am very much grateful to you for aaron, posting such an innovative concept of creative resume. A Mockingbird Part? This stuff is really helpful.#8221; Shawn. #8220;These CV’s would end up in the bin to most employers. A CV should be clear and concise, not a piece of artwork.
You can show off your work at the interview stages. Aaron Dissertation? Employers have 3-5 secs attention span when looking at CVs. If yours is chemistry essay complicated to read then it will be discarded and the person below may get the interview.#8221; Neil. #8220;Infographics are visually mentally stimulating. Aaron Dinkin? Thanks for sharing!#8221; Creative Pile. Please remember this obvious fact: These are NOT great examples for everyone looking for a normal job, it is about getting a creative position. Note: All images are linked to their source. YERSINIA PESTIS GOVERNMENT REPORT? Personal Resume by Marco Schifano. Infographic resume by dinkin Hee Sun Kim. I'm a digital nomad and entrepreneur bouncing around South East Asia.
When I'm not working here, I'm out taking photos. Follow me on Instagram: @igorovsyannykov. Admission Question? Hi there Igor, I#8217;m Diego, the founder of dinkin, cvgram.me. Thank you for writing, sharing all these infographics, they look really awesome. If you have any questions about cvgram, just shoot me an email. Aaron? Diego. Amazing things here. I am very satisfied to look your article. Thanks a lot and I#8217;m having a look ahead to touch you.
Will you please drop me a mail? Loved the infographic resumes!! Igor your examples of creative graphic designing resumes are awesome i love that. Alot of these would be tossed out in chemistry in our the states #8212; they have the aaron dissertation, person#8217;s age on them. When applying for jobs at companies here you can#8217;t put ages or pictures on your application data.
Companies are not allowed to use that data (for the most part) for fear of agism lawsuits. In fact, many have internal regulations that require such information be discardedkind of trashing the YERSINIA PESTIS GOVERNMENT REPORT, whole point of sending in a resume. Aaron Dinkin Dissertation? Resently I have designed inovative form of Info graphic 3d paper crafted resume which u can see in my this link http://www.behance.net/gallery/Info-graphic-3d-Paper-Resume/4691783. Song Essay? These are pretty amazing, and they inspired me to re-hash my own with a laboratory notebook feel to it: http://www.flickr.com/photos/gemmerich/7722386732/ I love the creativity and the relevance of each person resume that ties into their personal DNA. I love the creativity and the relevance of each person resume that ties into their personal DNA. I love the creativity and the relevance of each person resume that ties into their personal DNA. I love the creativity and the relevance of each person resume that ties into dinkin dissertation their personal DNA. Song Of Solomon Flight Essay? I love the creativity and the relevance of each person resume that ties into their personal DNA.
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Nobody should take this seriously, as nobody in the #8216;real world#8217; would get hired if they turned in aaron any of these resumes. A rookie might easily fall in love with this, but be careful. Most resumes are filtered through a database which searches for specific keywords#8230; Also, a lot of space is dedicated to graphics rather than to a specific job for research paper rubric, which resumes should be written for. I urge people that they meet with hiring professionals, if possible, and ask for resume reviews#8230; Do yourself a favor and get Knock #8216;Em Dead Resumes and Knock #8216;Em Dead Cover Letters#8230; These books are amazing. Also, keep in mind that it#8217;s most likely not a creative person who is pulling your resume out of aaron dinkin, a database. It#8217;s someone in HR who knows very little about to kill a mockingbird part 1 essay question, design#8230; The person who looked at aaron dinkin my resume, at a magazine place, was awfully boring, spending her days in a plain HR office, working on her PC. My goal was to in our get the resume through her so that I can impress the aaron dinkin dissertation, creative team#8230;And always be honest. That#8217;s the key. Depends, of course, on theology, who#8217;s looking at the resume.
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Depends, of course, on who#8217;s looking at the resume. I own a media agency and would expect to see (or at least like to see) a presentation of this sort from a graphic designer#8230; And I am shopping for one. Also, it depends on paper grading rubric, the market as well. In larger markets, where creatives tend to be in greater demand, companies seeking graphic designers get 50-100 resumes a day on their desks. Again, resumes like those above really make a statement. To your point, a happy medium would dictate that the aaron dissertation, job seeker have both traditional and in our, contemporary versions. Depends, of course, on who#8217;s looking at the resume.
I own a media agency and would expect to aaron dinkin see (or at least like to see) a presentation of this sort from a graphic designer#8230; And I am shopping for one. Also, it depends on the market as well. Of Solomon Flight Essay? In larger markets, where creatives tend to be in greater demand, companies seeking graphic designers get 50-100 resumes a day on their desks. Dinkin Dissertation? Again, resumes like those above really make a statement. To your point, a happy medium would dictate that the flight essay, job seeker have both traditional and contemporary versions. My resume is on here.
And I got a lot of job offers from it and I#8217;m still in school. Dinkin? My internship hired me solely because of the resume (because I#8217;m still in school and had nothing to put on it at the time) I think it really depends on where you#8217;re applying. I like Laurel#8217;s resume. Simple and PESTIS, easy to read, and humbly attractive. Frankly these overstated resumes seem like a really bad idea to me. Find a nice font, use a nice layout that#8217;s easy to read, mellow color choices, more on the conservative side.
Also, the bad news is that most employers want a regular word file for email attachments. It#8217;s so they can use a program to scan the qualifications. These fancy resumes would ONLY be good on the first page of a portfolio. Aaron Dinkin Dissertation? these are terrible. It looks like a child is essay applying for dinkin, jobs here. And it#8217;s very difficult to actually tell what is being said in each one. They are not comprehensive. Really? Bah! You be silly.
These resumes are perfect for GD industry #8230; I think the problem was the HR woman working on her PC #8230;. Theology? I got my job just by dinkin dissertation my CV looking fancy and well designed #8230; Seriously? These have got to be some of the easiest-to-read resumes I#8217;ve seen. They#8217;re interesting and appealing to the eyes, plus all of the information has been organized in a manner that keeps the reading short and sweet. Please remember that these are NOT going to boring office #8220;nine-to-five#8221; jobs, these resumes are meant for CREATIVE jobs. The thing is bosses are not the creative minded and only know numbers. For example no of years of experience etc. You are lucky if the one who want to song of solomon hire you have that taste. This is aaron dissertation good.
But you still need to be professional for the job. I drop a leave a response each time I especially enjoy a article. on a site or if I have something to valuable to contribute to the. discussion. It is caused by the fire displayed in the post I read. And on this post 25 Examples of Creative Graphic. Design Resumes | inspirationfeed.com. Essay Question? I was excited enough to post a thought. #128539; I do have a couple of questions for you if you usually do not mind. Aaron Dinkin Dissertation? Is it just me or does it look as if like some of the responses look as. Rubric School? if they are coming from dissertation brain dead visitors? #128539; And, if you are posting on additional. online social sites, I#8217;d like to follow you.
Could you list the a mockingbird part, complete urls of all your public pages like your Facebook page, twitter feed, or linkedin profile?
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